Professor Aleksei Malashenko: Gulnara Karimova is one of preferable candidates for successor to the president of Uzbekistan

Ferghana.Ru news agency September 5 Aleksei Malashenko, Member of the Scientific Council of the Moscow Carnegie Center and Professor of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations whose interview RIA-Novosti news agency published yesterday, said that "American and Russian diplomats are gauging chances of the people who may aspire for leadership in Uzbekistan." "Karimov's successor should suit representatives of different clans. From this point of view, president's daughter Gulnara is one of preferable candidates. There are people who are prepared to support her election. The only question is what she herself thinks. I know she has been categorically set against the idea. Elevation of other politicians to the pinnacle of power may split the country and that will make everything possible - uprising of local Islamists, explosion of international terrorism, and the spread of chaos all over the region," Malashenko said. Ferghana.Ru news agency approached Malashenko for comments. *** Question: Could you please elaborate on your opinion of the situation in Uzbekistan after the events in Andizhan. You call Gulnara Karimova a preferable candidate. Why? Aleksei Malashenko: As I see it, a smart woman, controversial but energetic, a woman who denounced the idea more than once, is better than a fight. That's my opinion of course but I think we underestimate this woman. I know what they write about her: about her family, the jewelry store, and so on... Take a look around. She is a European woman, I'm convinced of that. It is also the truth, however, that her chances of becoming the president are infinitesimal. Had she become the president regardless of all these scandals concerning her marriage and business ventures, it would have been the best turn of events. Question: You believe therefore that Gulnara Karimova will be a "lesser evil"? Aleksei Malashenko: Well, I do not perceive any good over there... Question: It is necessary now to seek a compromise among all possible negative scenarios, right? Aleksei Malashenko: I think so. Besides, if I may repeat it without boring you, Gulnara is a European person with all that it implies. Assuming she becomes the president (unlikely as it is), she will suit everyone. She will suit the West (regardless of the trial or her husband - all of that does not matter) and she will suit Russia because she has many connections in Moscow. I may be mistaken, but I see her as a rough person but not cruel. Question: Who did you mean saying there were people ready to back her up? Aleksei Malashenko: All sorts of people. Some of them hope to gain something, others see her the way I do. I do not want to give names. Had she become the president, it would have been the best possible turn of events. Compare her with other madames of the region, and the comparison will be in her favor. Question: You spoke in the interview of Moscow's and Washington's desire to have the power change hands without commotion and legitimately, of the search for the most acceptable candidate for president. But the United States and some other countries evacuated their embassies in Tashkent. How will you explain that? Aleksei Malashenko: That's different. Imagine an American killed in Uzbekistan. Even by pure chance. Uzbekistan will immediately become another Iraq where two American soldiers were killed today, or another Afghanistan. It will mean that the Americans are losing their men in the Moslem world. Evacuation of the embassy is therefore a logical step. Question: Do you know that the Uzbek Interior Ministry is being reorganized or that most of the Internal Troops are transferred to the National Security Service? In the meantime, there are reports as yet unconfirmed on other serious changes taking place in the corridors of power in Uzbekistan. Any comments? Aleksei Malashenko: These intrigues are not exactly my field. Last time I visited Uzbekistan was in 2004. I figure that struggle is under way in the presidential circle, struggle on two levels. Level One: the struggle of Karimov himself, that for the successor. Level Two: the struggle that may be described by the phrases "What will happen after Karimov" and "Who cares what the successor will be like?" I'd say that Karimov is winning. That is why he feels free to disband security structures, etc. But this is a process that is not over yet. We should not forget about residents of the Ferghana Valley or that everything that is taking place now is on the level of palace intrigues for the time being. I'd say that Karimov should start thinking in broader terms that he has been thinking so far. Question: Are you saying that Karimov is devoting all his time to the search for successor? Aleksei Malashenko:?That's a nice question. He has been doing it these last 3.5 years. You know it, I know it. The first rumors that he was leaving appeared in June of 2003, I think. I happened to be in Tashkent then. Most of the people I talked to - drivers, vendors, etc, - were waiting for him to step down. It was a "settled" matter. It's just that Karimov is certainly taking his time. I believe that he does want out. But the situation that takes shape every time does not let him ensure continuity or even security of his own family. We all know what is happening around Akayev now. All of that convinces Karimov that his conduct in the situation in Andizhan was correct. I suspect that he will continue this stiff policy. He is not the Karimov he once was. I think that he will encounter some serious resistance, perhaps, a few weeks from now. Question: Do you think that the events in Andizhan were essentially a provocation against Karimov staged and orchestrated by some forces in Uzbekistan itself? Aleksei Malashenko: I tried to reconstruct hypothetical developments in Andizhan and analyze them in the article published in the latest issue of Novoye Vremya. Ferghana.Ru news agency: Thank you for your time.