A base in a dictator's backyard

EurasiaNet September 1 U.S. military officials are denying reports that the Pentagon explored the establishment of an air base in Turkmenistan, a country run by a dictator, Saparmurat Niazov, who has proven an unpredictable partner in numerous international dealings. Russian media outlets reported on 30 August that Turkmenistan may have agreed to make an air base near the city of Mary available to U.S. forces. A report published by the Interfax-AVN news agency suggested that the U.S. military would use the Mary facility as a replacement for a base in neighboring Uzbekistan. In late July, Uzbek authorities announced that U.S. forces had six months to vacate a base at Karshi-Khanabad in southeastern Uzbekistan. In the same Interfax-AVN report, Russian Air Force Maj. Gen. Nikolai Bezborodov characterized the Mary facility as one of the best military airfields in the post-Soviet space, located in the direct vicinity of Afghanistan s northern provinces. A Pentagon spokesman, Lt. Cmdr. Joe Carpenter, described the reports as distorted and false. He insisted that there is nothing new in the military-to-military relations between Washington and Ashgabat. Turkmen authorities have not officially commented on the reports. Several recent developments have helped fuel speculation about a possible U.S.-Turkmen base deal. On 23 August, Gen. John Abizaid, chief of the U.S. Central Command, held talks with Niazov in Ashgabat. According to a statement issued by the U.S. embassy in Ashgabat, Abizaid and Niazov discussed areas of mutual interest, including broad security issues of regional consequence. It added that the U.S. general reassured the Turkmen leader that the U.S. presence in Central Asia was solely designed to stabilize Afghanistan, emphasizing that Washington did not seek confrontation with any of the nations in the region. According to the Turkmenistan.ru web site, Niazov and Abizaid also discussed the future of the trans-Afghan gas pipeline project, which would facilitate the export of Turkmen energy to markets in India and Pakistan. A few days after meeting Abizaid, Niazov did not show up at a Commonwealth of Independent States summit, held in the Russian city of Kazan. At the 26 August meeting, Turkmen officials announced that Ashgabat was unilaterally downgrading its affiliation to the CIS to associate member. Another source of intrigue is the fact that Mary, a desert oasis in southern Turkmenistan, has been closed to outsiders. One expert, however, dismissed the possibility of a connection between Mary being off-limits and the possible arrival of U.S. military personnel. The air base, according to the expert, is situated far from the city. Thus, there would seem to be no need to restrict access to the city in order to improve security conditions in and around the air base. Political analysts say a Niazov decision to give basing rights to the United States would be out of step with his policy course over the last few years. He has sought to isolate Turkmenistan from outside influences that have buffeted Central Asia, including Islamic radicalism and the color-revolution phenomenon. Accordingly, Niazov has emphasized Turkmenistan s neutrality. In a recent address to CIS heads of state, Niazov wrote that Ashgabat will not join or take part in military blocs or unions or in alliances among states that have a regulatory function, and will also not allow military bases belonging to foreign powers to be located on its territory. Meanwhile, human rights experts cautioned that the United States would be courting a public relations disaster if the Pentagon struck a base deal with Niazov, who is widely regarded as one of the world s foremost tyrants. Washington s criticism of Uzbekistan s human rights practices was a major factor in the collapse of the U.S.-Uzbek strategic alliance. Turkmenistan s rights record is generally recognized as being even worse than Uzbekistan s, raising the question of how Washington could retain credibility as an advocate of democratization if it entered into a close strategic relationship with Niazov. The United States is surely wary of entering into any potential agreement with Turkmenistan. President Niazov is isolationist, unilateralist, erratic and often deaf to international concerns, said Erika Dailey, director of the Turkmenistan Project, an initiative of the New York-based Open Society Institute devoted to promoting civil society in the Central Asian nation. The United States recently has made a point of distancing itself from tyrants around the world. The only responsible decision when contemplating support for the trans-Afghan pipeline or the possibility of a U.S. military base would be to continue to distance itself from Niazov. Niazov has a long history of mercurial behavior. At a cabinet meeting on 22 August, for example, he announced a ban on recorded music at public events, on television and at weddings. Previously, he had ordered the closure of opera and theater in the country, while touting a grandiose scheme to develop a vast artificial lake in the middle of the Turkmen desert. In addition, Niazov has proven a fickle negotiating partner, especially in deals concerning the country s abundant natural gas reserves. Some analysts also have viewed Turkmenistan s position as complicating efforts to break the stalemate in multilateral talks on the territorial division of the Caspian Sea.