In competition for Central Asia

Chicago Tribune October 23 In the early 19th Century, czarist Russia and the British Empire shadowboxed over Central Asia in an exercise of diplomatic brinkmanship that historians would later dub the "Great Game." The United States insists it has no designs on replaying that game. "We do not look at Central Asia as an object in a Great Game," Daniel Fried, a top State Department envoy for Eurasian affairs, said recently in Washington. "We do not look at this as a zero-sum contest between the United States, the Russians and the Chinese." There is just one problem. Whether Washington likes it or not, Russia and China indeed have brought back the Great Game to the steppes and snow-capped peaks of Central Asia, a region blessed with oil but struggling with rampant poverty, corruption and Islamic extremism. China's booming economy has its leaders looking to Central Asia for new oil and gas sources. Russia's own oil resources are vast, but for the Kremlin, Central Asian states are former Soviet regimes it wants back under its wing. For the United States, the region represents an important battleground in the war on terror and a vital staging area for its operations in Afghanistan. "We know that the pendulum in Central Asia moves rather easily and fast, but as of the moment, the rules of the game are determined by Russia and China," said Erkin Tukumov, director of the Kazakhstan-based Central Asian Foundation for Developing Democracy. So far, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's visit this month to three Central Asian nations once belonging to the Soviet Union has yielded a written assurance from Kyrgyzstan that the United States will be allowed to keep a military base there to support combat and humanitarian missions in Afghanistan. Rice urged leaders in Kazakhstan to ensure a free and fair vote during presidential elections in December. She also traveled to Tajikistan and assured leaders there that the United States would not pursue a military base on Tajik soil. But Russia and China already have cemented political and economic ties with Central Asian leaders, signing lucrative energy deals and fortifying security partnerships in recent months. Both countries also have exploited the fears among Central Asian leaders that Western interference could lead to the kind of popular uprisings that toppled autocrats in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. "The people of Central Asia are the only masters of their destiny," said Chinese President Hu Jintao at a summit of Russian, Chinese and Central Asian leaders in July. "They are wise and free enough to put their own houses in order." Speaking at the same summit, Uzbekistan President Islam Karimov was more blunt. Western governments, he said, "aim to create a situation of so-called managed instability and ... foist on us their own model of development." Karimov's handling of the bloody May 13 crackdown on demonstrators in Andijan provided the fulcrum for shifting alliances in Central Asia. Karimov has maintained that his troops fired solely on armed protesters and put the death toll at 187. But human-rights groups have said 700 or more people died, most of them unarmed demonstrators shot by Uzbek soldiers. Karimov reacted angrily to calls from U.S. and West European leaders for an international investigation into what happened, eventually ordering the shutdown of a military base the United States had been using in southern Uzbekistan for operations in Afghanistan. Since Andijan, Russia and China have pulled out all stops to win over Central Asian leaders. Twelve days after the massacre, China feted Karimov with red-carpet fanfare, and Hu lauded his guest's efforts "in safeguarding national independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity." When the European Union on Oct. 3 announced an arms embargo on Uzbekistan for failing to yield to calls for an international investigation into Andijan, Russian leaders quickly assured Karimov that Moscow was not swayed and would continue its role as a reliable arms supplier. Russia has been especially aggressive in Central Asia - the Russian daily Kommersant reported Oct. 6 that the Kremlin had planned to dissuade Tajikistan President Emomali Rakhmonov from granting any U.S. base request. Desperate for new energy sources, China has ramped up its investments in Central Asia. An Uzbek-Chinese forum in May produced nearly $1.5 billion in joint investments, including oil and gas exploration ventures in the Aral Sea. China's largest oil company is also vying to buy Canada's PetroKazakhstan, home to Kazakh oil fields capable of producing nearly 150,000 barrels daily. "China definitely sees an opening here," said Michael Hall, an analyst with the International Crisis Group's office in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. "They see Central Asia as a potential source of energy." U.S. interest in Central Asia had been subdued until Sept. 11, 2001, when the attacks on the United States led to the invasion of Afghanistan and heightened concerns about Islamic extremist groups in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Central Asia's other former Soviet republics. In addition to opening an air base at Karshi-Khanabad in southern Uzbekistan, the United States also funneled millions of dollars in aid to Karimov's regime, which for years had been battling an al-Qaida-linked group called the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. U.S. aid to Uzbekistan continued to flow, despite abundant evidence that Karimov's regime persecuted and tortured legions of innocent Uzbeks under the guise of fighting terrorism. The events in Andijan, however, appear to have produced a change in U.S. policy. In a recent briefing in Washington, Fried said American diplomacy in Central Asia will focus on combating Islamic extremism, promoting democracy and spurring economic reform. "We cannot and will not have a one-dimensional relationship with any of these countries, based for example, purely on security interest," Fried said. "It does not work." Presidential elections in Kazakhstan in December and in Tajikistan in late 2006 will test Washington's new emphasis on democratic reforms. Elections in Central Asia are routinely rigged, keeping in place holdovers from the Soviet era. The lone exception has been the presidential contest won by Kurmanbek Bakiyev in Kyrgyzstan this summer, hailed by Western observers as a largely free and fair vote. "The elections in Central Asia are run by people who want to stay in control," Hall said. "With every election, we see a tightening of control on the media, and on opposition parties. We're likely to see this again, so that puts the U.S. in a difficult position." China and Russia, however, do not condition their Central Asia diplomacy and aid on issues such as democracy-building and human rights, giving them a distinct advantage over Washington in the region, analysts say. "Russia and China are seen in Central Asia as better partners because they don't demand democratic reforms and aren't interested in human rights," said Dosym Satpayev, a Central Asia analyst who has written a book on Chinese-Kazakh affairs. "It's difficult to develop democracy with the political elite that's in power in Central Asia now."