US, EU hardening stance toward Uzbekistan

Eurasia Insight October 7 The United States and European Union are playing hardball with Uzbekistan, due to the refusal of Uzbek leaders to permit an independent international inquiry into the Andijan massacre. Relations between the United States and EU on the one had and Uzbekistan on the other have soured with dramatic speed since the May 13 Andijan massacre. Uzbekistan -- which insists the Andijan events were the result of an international Islamic radical conspiracy bent on overthrowing President Islam Karimov's administration -- has adamantly rejected repeated US and EU demands for an independent probe. Human rights groups, drawing on eyewitness accounts, insist that the bulk of the deaths in Andijan occurred when Uzbek security forces opened fire without warning on unarmed, civilian demonstrators. Sen. John McCain, Republican of Arizona, engineered a US Senate vote October 5 that prevents the Defense Department from making a $23-million payment to Uzbekistan for at least a year. The payment is connected with a lease deal under which US military forces used the Karshi-Khanabad (K-2) air base to fly support missions for on-going operations in Afghanistan. In late July, Uzbekistan ordered the eviction of US forces from the K-2. Since then, Uzbek authorities have orchestrated a wide-ranging, anti-American media campaign. At the same, Tashkent has strengthened relations with Russia and China. An October 5 article published in the government daily Narodnoye Slovo repeated allegations that the US embassy in Tashkent provided assistance to the alleged Islamic militants who mounted the Andijan "uprising." The article went on to claim that US demand for an international investigation was designed chiefly "to erase an American 'track' in Uzbekistan." US officials have dismissed the claim of embassy involvement in the Andijan events. In justifying the Senate's decision, McCain characterized Karimov as "a dictator." He also stressed that the United States does not renege on its financial commitments, but added that it was important for Washington to send a signal to the international community that it does not "overlook massacres." McCain also noted that Uzbekistan had ceased all anti-terrorism cooperation with the United States. On September 29, the House of Representatives passed a non-binding resolution, co-sponsored by Democrats Lloyd Doggett of Texas and William Delahunt of Massachusetts, that urged the Defense Department to suspend K-2 payments. The resolution also called on the Bush administration to bring up the Andijan massacre in the United Nations Security Council with the aim of referring the Uzbek government's actions to the International Criminal Court. EU foreign ministers, meeting in Luxembourg on October 3, opted to punish Uzbekistan over "the excessive, disproportionate and indiscriminate use of force by the Uzbek security forces" in Andijan on May 13. In addition to an arms and military equipment ban, the EU suspended some forms of aid delivered through its Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with Uzbekistan. The vote marked the first time that the EU has suspended a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with a foreign government. In addition, Uzbek military and government officials are prohibited from traveling to EU member states. While the United States and the EU are taking a firm line against Karimov's administration, Russia has been urging moderation toward Uzbekistan. An October 4 commentary published by the Russian-government-run RIA-Novosti news agency criticized the EU's decision, saying it was done largely for "propaganda purposes." The commentary argued that sanctions, rather than moderating Karimov's behavior, could end up destabilizing Uzbekistan and the entire Central Asian region. It quoted Russian political scientist Anatoly Belyayev, who urged the United States and EU "to display extreme caution in applying European standards of democratization" to Uzbekistan and other Central Asian states. "If democracy is established in Uzbekistan under the Western scenario, the effect is very likely to be the opposite: radical Islamization," the commentary said. A growing number of regional experts believe Uzbekistan is destined to be engulfed in turmoil in the near future. In an interview broadcast on Kazakhstani state television, political scientist Azimbai Gali characterized Uzbekistan as a state "on the threshold of a civil war, or a coup." He said that Uzbekistan's economy is in ruinous condition, regardless of US and EU sanctions. "There is no internal economic mechanism," Gali warned. In addition, the Karimov regime is widely disliked by the population, he said, adding that "the Uzbek people will not unite around their authorities" in a national emergency. Political Analyst Sergei Yezhkov, in a commentary posted on the Ferghana.ru website October 6, suggested the bell might already tolling for the Karimov administration. Yezhkov argued that Uzbekistan is a prime candidate for a "palace coup." He reasoned that a large segment of Uzbekistan's state bureaucracy now blames Karimov for steering the country into a dead-end politically and economically. "State officials on all levels are scared of the possibility of a nationwide revolt, and all that it implies - lootings, fires, murders ...," Yezhkov wrote. "These men [officials] know that the [leadership], which is responsible for all this impoverishment and international isolation will [try to] leave the country when the time is ripe. They, on the other, hand would hardly be able to follow suit." In order to protect their positions, alarmed officials are liable to attempt a move against Karimov and his inner circle "without waiting for the mobs, driven by despair, to start taking apart everything within reach," Yezhkov said.