Uzbekistan's chances for a Silk Revolution

UzLand.Info April 28 Recent presidential elections in Ukraine and in Georgia in November of 2003, according to some analysts, have put a beginning to a new tendency of regime change in the post-Soviet space. They believe this new phenomenon should cover almost all of the CIS states. Can this happen in Uzbekistan? The county's 15-year long president Islam Karimov said he would not let any type of a revolution to take place in his country, because he thinks, first, it has no base in Uzbekistan, and, second, the leadership will try to avoid mistakes of the Ukrainian and Georgian leaderships. As the elections in Ukraine were unfolding in a dramatic manner, ordinary citizens in the former Soviet Union, including Uzbekistan, followed them like a Latin American soap-opera they are used to watching on their TV in which events unfold slowly and no one knows what the outcome will be. In Uzbekistan citizens, too, wondered if the "Ukrainian scenario" could be played in their country. An answer to this question was not of less interest both to the Uzbek leadership and their Russian counterparts who tried hard to install their own candidate, Viktor Yanukovich, in power in Ukraine and hope to revive the Russian influence in the former Soviet countries. A velvet revolution through non-violent resistance came to the CIS from Central and Eastern Europe where in late 1980s and early 1990s, with the end of the Cold War and collapse of the Soviet Union, former communist regimes began to fall apart to be replaced by non-communist, new generation leaders. In the former Soviet Union, however, most of the communist leaders remained in power. But a few years later people found themselves disappointed with the communist-transformed-democrats or rather pseudo-democrats who did not keep their independence-day promises of justice, freedom of speech and economic prosperity but rather usurped their power, enriched themselves and allowed no contenders for a throne through rigged elections. The time for radical political changes has come. But will such regime change take place in Uzbekistan? According to foreign experts as well as local merchants and farmers, hard social and economic conditions of life, and more importantly people's desire, have created enough conditions for radical changes. The public discontent with the corruption in the law enforcement and justice system, absence of free speech and abuse of power by government officials have resulted in a number of protests in the past two years. "We are in a deep political and economic crisis", says leader of the unregistered opposition group "Ozod Dehqonlar" (Free Farmers) Nigora Hidoyatova. "The Ukrainian or Georgian scenario can be played in Uzbekistan too, but all depends on the political will of our government, on the level of their preparedness for changes in a peaceful way. Unlike Georgia and Ukraine, we don't have a parliamentary opposition." There is not a single registered opposition party in Uzbekistan. All the five existing parties are fully loyal to the leadership of the government. They have not criticized government's policies a single time. "All of the five parties are pocket parties. People don't know them. During the whole time of their existence we haven't learned what their agenda is and what they have accomplished to improve the quality of life in the country," known human rights defender Surat Ikramov. Indeed, of tens of questioned people in capital Tashkent's two biggest markets, Chor-Su and Alay, and in the streets of Ferghana, no one, even a few days before the parliamentary elections in Uzbekistan last December, could name all the five political parties and differences among them. They also did not know which party or which candidate they would vote for on the election day. Nevertheless the turn out last December 26 was as high as 80%. Despite the ban on censorship in the Constitution, according to Ikramov, the country's main law is violated almost everyday. Information in newspapers and on radio and TV is highly censored on a daily basis. Reports on the elections in Ukraine were bias and one-sided like in Russia where the press favored Viktor Yanukovich. Uzbek president Islam Karimov even sent a congratulatory note to the latter in unison with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin before the Ukrainian Central Election Commission declared a winner and at the time when the rest of the world refused to recognize Yanukovich a winner due to faked-up votes. The absence of freedom of speech deprives people of alternative sources of information. And, naturally, people do not have enough information about the existence and work of opposition groups. And moreover the government is intolerant to them. Because if even people followed opposition groups and became part of a few-thousand-men demonstration with their political demands, the question still up in the air is will the authorities tolerate them like in Georgia and Ukraine or will they force against the demonstrators? One of the leaders of pro-government political party "Milliy Tiklanish" (National Renessaince) Hurshid Dostmuhammad, for example, is not sure that in Uzbekistan violence will not be employed. "It is interesting to watch such events overseas and say 'Wow, this is a democracy!', but for Uzbekistan I wouldn't wish such a democracy. Just imagine, what if the blood of innocent people are shed during a demonstration? I don't need this type of democracy!" In Uzbekistan in recent years no major political figure has declared opposition to the existing regime. Both Hidoyatova and Ikramov do not rule out that opposition leaders should have political experience of working in the government since it gives managerial and organization skills, supporters inside the government, certain administrative and financial resources and, certainly, a political weight. For example, in Georgia Mikhail Saakashvili was minister of justice and in Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko served as prime minister. Russian analysts and journalists are confident that the "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine wasn't possible without an outside and inside financial support. In Uzbekistan in the severe conditions of government control over the economy, no class of oligarchs exists. No large business will ever finance opposition groups if it is not involved in politics and has no desire for radical changes. It is because in Uzbekistan major industries are still in the government's hands and other profitable sectors are controlled by relatives and associates of senior government officials. Ikramov says that it is the mentality of Uzbek people and their indifference to politics that put off any kind of Ukrainian or Georgian-like revolution. Perhaps therefore at each protest demonstrations organized by opposition groups no more than 20-25 people attend. Although such indifference to politics may be the cause of the absence of free speech and the ban on any opposition activity. Long-time opposition movement "Birlik" (Unity) has been declined formal registration for the 6th times in the last decade. Ordinary people see the situation with their own eyes. "We do not have a democracy. People cannot freely express their opinion in public," says 26 year-old trader Akram. "What kind of democracy can we talk about if there are four policemen per resident?" say with an outrage a man older than Akram. "People are worried about the security of their family and relatives. If you say something, they will put you behind bars on some fake charges." Women seem to be bolder than men. "The people's patience will soon burst out. The life has become unbearable," says one of them. To a question if Uzbekistan has its own "Yushchenko" to lead people, another woman says: "If it is required, I will lead people." A little funny, but a pretty bold statement demonstrating the ripeness of the Uzbek society for a velvet revolution but absent the above-mentioned factors, including an influential and charismatic leader, Uzbekistan's turn may not come yet for a few more years. If the "Ukrainian factors" do not yet exist in Uzbekistan, what awaits it in the near future? According to a well-known Uzbek female-journalist, who spoke in condition of strict anonymity, no major political changes will take place in Uzbekistan in the next 2-3 years. "In 2007 president Karimov's second and last presidential term expires, according to the Constitution, and perhaps then will we witness some drastic political changes," she says. It is hard to say now what type of changes there will be 2-3 years from now. Everything will depend on the decision Islam Karimov will have to make. Whether he will want to prolong his stay in power by another constitutional change or he will want to bring his daughter to presidency or he will prefer some other scenario by installing his loyalist in power and himself still ruling behind the scene. It will also depend on the situation in the CIS and Central Asia and how much velvet and orange colors will prevail on this territory. But the Uzbek leadership should also keep in mind that by keeping secular opposition groups out it is leaving a gap that may be filled in by more radical and violent Islamist groups still strong in the country and capable of gaining public support in rural areas.