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EURASIA INSIGHT
September 6
 griculture, once the mainstay of Uzbekistan's economy, now threatens to
cause a rupture as the country faces a water shortage. Uzbek law obliges
farmers to sell the government part of their harvest of grain. Normally,
farmers can use or sell the rest, but this year's water shortage has
aggravated pressure to meet state quotas. Many farmers have surrendered
their entire crop to the government. And since the government pays
below-market prices, this means a real risk of bankruptcy for many. They
have responded. Farmers blocked roads in the Jizak region on June 27,
demanding the seizures be stopped. Previously, others confronted soldiers
who were guarding the harvest. Uzbek authorities should take these as
warning signals, because scarce grain could trigger explosive results.
During the Soviet era, Uzbeks specialized in cotton growing, buying their
grain from elsewhere in the USSR. After economic relations among the former
Soviet republics crashed, reliable Uzbek grain imports stopped, forcing the
country to buy grain at a moment when prices were relatively high.
Uzbekistan consequently decided to pursue a grain self-sufficiency policy.
Despite the fact that production has fallen since then, officials insist
that this is a realistic goal. Up until July 4, farmers had sold the
government 2.43 million tons of grain, which represent 95 percent of the
government's target for 2001. But the government may be underestimating
demand. According to international standards, the average per capita grain
needed is 1,000 kg per year. Hence, with a population of 24 million people,
Uzbekistan's annual production should reach 24 million tons. Grain quotas
clearly do not induce farmers to overproduce, and the revenue gains they
trigger are modest at best. And unless the government starts paying fairer
prices, quotas will ruin farmers' livelihoods and may foster civil unrest.
There is too little grain to make the system efficient. Last year,
Uzbekistan gathered less than 3 million tons of grain from more than 1
million hectares - a rather low productivity compared to other countries.
Although the government opened up 100,000 more hectares of land for grain
sowing, the harvest was still below 1999 figures. Drought may explain some
of the shortages, but Leif Hansen, an IMF division chief responsible for
Uzbekistan, believes that the agricultural system is just as much to blame.
Furthermore, grain now eats up about half the acreage that once grew animal
feed. This has devastated efforts to industrialize animal husbandry.
Tashkent's policy blithely leaves farmers without surplus or alternative
crops, which they have traditionally used to supplement their incomes.
Farmers, and the rural residents who depend on them, often turn to crime.
Experts suggest that last year's contraband flour represented more than 0.5
million tons, despite a campaign from the authorities to snuff out
violations. But this is hardly the most severe kind of crop-related
lawlessness. The severe economic crisis creates volatile conditions in the
Ferghana Valley and elsewhere, as perceptions of inequity can spur violence.
The Valley's high population growth -it covers 4.3 percent of the country's
territory and houses 28 percent of its population - intensifies strong
social pressures.
For rural people, who comprise 60 percent of Uzbekistan's population,
transfers out of the agricultural sector are also more unsettling than other
post-Soviet adjustments. The government's grain price-fixing aggravates the
gap between those who benefit from a market system and those who don't. In
the year 2000, agriculture grew only by 3.2 percent and industrial
production by 6.4 percent. Citizens find this difference frustrating; it's
no coincidence that the first significant public Islamic movement, "Justice"
(Adolat), arose in 1991 in Namangan, a poor region with a strong
agricultural base. Islamic activism, dressed up as a response to moral and
social degradation, remains a force today in the rhetoric of the "Islamic
Movement of Uzbekistan" and "Party of Liberation" (Hizb-ut Tahrir) parties.
In a nightmare scenario, Islamists could use grain-related rhetoric to
co-opt widespread economic discontent.
International aid can help dissolve this scenario. The Aga Khan Development
Network, an ecumenical foundation controlled by the Imam of the Ismaili
Muslims, has managed to promote self-sufficiency in grain production in
Badakhshan, Tajikistan. Observers had long presumed such a goal to be
unattainable because of various environmental limitations. But so far,
Uzbekistan's government has shown little interest in foreigners' ideas.
They are imperiling themselves. Uzbek leaders must approach agricultural
problems with stability in mind. To prevent serious unrest, the government
should both buy at fair prices and cooperate with neighboring governments.
World Bank specialists have encouraged the Uzbek government to make more
grain purchases from Kazakhstan which would produce enough grain and flour
to satisfy the country's needs. Meanwhile, if the government allows for
alternative crops, Uzbek farmers could start selling again to Kazakhstan and
Russia. If Uzbekistan fails to adjust its grain policy, upcoming crops may
embitter the entire country.
Editor's Note: Antoine Blua is a freelance writer who specializes on Central
Asian affairs.
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Kazakh gas transportation company opens office in Uzbek capital
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Kazakh news agency Interfax-Kazakhstan
September 5
 he KazTransGaz gas transportation company, which
is a part of Kazakhstan's Transport Nefti i Gaza [Oil and Gas
Transportation] state holding, has opened an office in the Uzbek capital, Tashkent,
KazTransGaz's press release says.
The document says that the company's office was opened in Tashkent "in
order to activate mutual relations, to facilitate work with Uzbek colleagues,
to ensure Kazakhstan's permament presence on the gas market of the
friendly country".
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Japan grants Uzbek Aral Sea area 40,000 dollars to ease water crisis
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Uzbek TV
September 5
 apan has granted Uzbekistan's drought-hit Karakalpakstan 40,000
dollars. The money will be used for buying and installing 90 water
pumps in the Aral Sea area.
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Результаты 25 тура чемпионата Узбекистана по футболу
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Uzland.Uz
September 6
 ыграны очередные матчи чемпионата Узбекистана по футболу. Лидер ферганский "Нефтчи" потерпел поражение от наманганского "Навбахор", однако продолжает уверенно лидировать. "Дустлик, выигрывая 3:0, в итоге упустил победу в матче с "Академией".
Семург - Андижан 0:2
Навбахор - Нефтчи 2:0
Пахтакор - Согдиана 2:1
Металлург - Самарканд-Д 1:1
Кимёгар - Трактор 2:2
Сурхан - Кызылкум 1:0
Дустлик - Академия 3:3
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ranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi arrived
in the capital of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, on Thursday morning [6 September]
at the head of a delegation.
изит в Ташкент делегации Москвы во главе с мэром Юрием Лужковым, планировавшийся на сегодня, перенесен на пятницу, 7 сентября. Об этом корреспонденту CNA сообщил источник в МИД Узбекистана. По его данным, в тот же день московский градоначальник будет принят президентом Узбекистана Исламом Каримовым. На следующий день Юрий Лужков осмотрит новостройки Ташкента, включая новую ветку метро и Алайский рынок. В хокимияте (мэрии) Ташкента будет подписано соглашение о сотрудничестве двух столиц.
чередной
конгресс Международной ассоциации кураша /МАК/ принял в среду решение о
месте проведения 4-го чемпионата мира, который состоится в 2002 году.
Соревнования примет Ереван, опередивший при голосовании кандидатуры из
Ирана и Турции.