Kyrgyz newspaper 'RIF-Obozreniye'
October 26
zbekistan is trying to take advantage of cooperating with the US war
on terrorism but its people may not support a pro-US policy, a Kyrgyz
newspaper has suggested. It said Uzbekistan could hope to weaken the
banned armed Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), strengthen the position of
Afghan ethnic Uzbek commander Abdorrashid Dostum, play a role in
deciding Afghanistan's post-war destiny, shake off Western criticism of measures
against religious organizations in Uzbekistan, attract investment and
generally strengthen its own position in Central Asia, becoming a rival
to Russia in the region. It warned, however, of possible anti-US sentiment
in Uzbekistan, and said the Taleban might take revenge, either by
attacking directly or by enlisting the help of the IMU. The paper called on
Central Asian states which incline towards the CIS to act together.
The following is the text of the report, entitled "Is Uzbekistan Threatened with the Fate of Pakistan?", by Kyrgyz newspaper RIF-Obozreniye on 26 October.
President Islam Karimov's decision to actively assist the USA in its fight against international terrorism evokes diverse, sometimes diametrically opposed views amongst political scientists, although the official authorities in the CIS countries, in the first instance in Central Asia, so far prefer not to comment Tashkent's actions.
This is evidently because many of them take an understanding view of the problems of Uzbekistan's national security, which are in their turn due to the Uzbek authorities' desire to take the maximum advantage of the situation which has developed around Afghanistan.
There are several reasons for this.
Weakening IMU
First, there is the opportunity to destroy or at least weaken, thanks to the efforts of the US special services, the main adversary of Uzbekistan's present authorities, namely the fighters of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan led by Juma Namangoniy. Tashkent is forced to maintain the biggest army in the region just in order to counter him.
Strengthening Dostum
Second, the likelihood of the position of the northern Afghan Uzbeks' leader, Gen Abdorrashid Dostum, being strengthened emerges. Reasonable conditions for this have clearly emerged following the death of the more authoritative Northern Alliance leader, [commander and Defence Minister] Ahmad Shah Masud. If subunits commanded by Dostum achieve military successes, American politicians may bet on him as a counterweight to the pro-Iranian and pro-Russian forces of [Masud's successor] Gen. Mohammad Qasim Fahim, whose predecessor failed to take relations with the West which were opening up to their logical conclusion. It is no secret that before Masud's death he had made a trip to Paris and delivered a speech to European Parliament. It is unlikely that Dostum himself will be reminded of his betrayal of the interests of his allies, demonstrated more than clearly over previous years of war, when he and his subordinates repeatedly took the side of the Taleban and then defected to the Northern Alliance.
Post-war destiny
Third, this way Uzbekistan will have the opportunity to become one of the main entities to decide the post-war destiny of Afghanistan, and in doing so gain access to its resources. Tashkent holds views similar to the USA's position on the division of Afghanistan, since the American Unocal [Union Oil Company of California] corporation virtually had the contract to supply Uzbek gas to Pakistan and on through Afghanistan.
Shaking off criticism
Fourth, in cooperating with the USA in fighting religious extremism and international terrorism, Tashkent has virtually shaken off the West's criticism of tough measures taken against unregistered religious organizations.
Investment
Fifth, Tashkent can now fully count on an inflow of Western investment both for defence and for the economy as a whole.
Strengthening Uzbek position
And finally, the presence of US subunits and units in Uzbekistan and rapprochement with the USA on many issues are yet another factor in the strengthening position of Uzbekistan in the region, which both Moscow and Washington will take into consideration.
Rival to Russia
It is, therefore, possible to say that thanks to Tashkent's foreign policy efforts, a worthy rival to Russia has appeared in Central Asia. The chance of the US military leaving Uzbekistan quickly following the retaliation operation in Afghanistan appears small. Most likely, the USA will try to radically strengthen its influence in the region, primarily in the military sphere.
This means that Uzbekistan, which currently openly ignores the interests of its neighbours in bilateral agreements - whether it be in border disputes or water and energy problems - will continue its policy even more defiantly. The first sign of this attitude has been the statement of the Uzbek authorities that the supply of natural gas to Kyrgyzstan would be stopped due to untimely payment, although the debt Uzbekistan itself owes to Kyrgyz power engineers exceeds this debt several times. Although this issue has now been removed from the agenda, more disagreements of Uzbekistan with its other neighbours may emerge later as rapprochement with the USA increases.
Anti-US sentiment
However, Uzbekistan's future seems rather complex in this situation. In particular, anti-American sentiments in the very Islamized Fergana Valley, stirred up by underground religious organizations from within, will only intensify, both by virtue of the changes in Tashkent foreign policy and due to the repressive measures taken by the authorities against dissidents, which continue to this day.
Taleban revenge
Neither can it be ruled out that the leadership of the Taleban movement, whose hands are now untied towards all obvious allies of the USA in the present confrontation, will attempt to destabilize the situation in Uzbekistan either by an open incursion through the Uzbek-Afghan border or with the help of supporters of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan [IMU] in Afghanistan and Uzbekistan itself. In the event of a large-scale clash of the Uzbek armed forces with IMU fighters, Russia will most likely refrain from giving any assistance to watch how Tashkent copes with such a situation along with its new ally the USA. Thus it is quite possible that under certain circumstances, Uzbekistan could be threatened with the fate of today's Pakistan, where the authorities adhere to a pro-American policy due to the foreign policy situation, while an absolute majority of the population are against it. If one also takes into account the possible geopolitical isolation of Uzbekistan by its closest neighbours in response to its actions, the chance of a destabilization of the situation in Uzbekistan increases several times.
CIS
Central Asian states that are more oriented towards integration within the CIS should, in these conditions, draw up a single policy towards the events and processes occurring in Afghanistan and Uzbekistan. This will make it possible on the one hand to coordinate their efforts to protect their own regional interests and on the other hand to avoid differences with the Islamic world and CIS allies.