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Eurasia
May 10
espite the many claims of success, international programs designed to counter narcotics trafficking in Central Asia and Afghanistan are clouded by controversy.
The UN’s Office of Drug Control and Crime Prevention (UN ODCCP) boasts that opium poppy cultivation has dramatically declined in Afghanistan, while drug seizures have dramatically risen. The ODCCP claims that its crop substitution programs in Afghanistan have virtually stopped opium cultivation there: although poppy cultivation continued to grow during the 1990s, reaching a peak in 1999, the UN reports a dramatic reduction, if not total eradication of the poppy crop in 2000.
But others are skeptical. Critics of these findings -- including the U.S. government -- say production levels cannot be judged with any degree of certainty until satellite imagery reveals a fuller picture, and that declines in production likely are due to reasons that have little to do with western programs or political commitment on the part of Afghanistan. Any production declines, they say, would be due to the effects of the serious draught that hit this area last year, and even to a calculated business decision on the part of the Taliban to use up existing stockpiles and attempt to artificially drive up the price of heroin -- while gaining political brownie points in the process. The US DEA has already noted a steep rise over the past few months in the price of heroin in this region.
Likewise with interdiction. Again, UN ODCCP and other donors report, in the words of one UN official, "some startling good statistics associated with drug interdiction rates in Central Asia." These reports reference rates in Kyrgyzstan, reportedly up fivefold between 1995-2000, and Tajiks are reporting up to 1.3 tons of heroin interdicted in Tajikistan in the first nine months of 2000. The U.S. government reports high numbers of Central Asians trained in counter-narcotics techniques, and growing quantities of equipment shipped for border guards, customs officials and others. But critics argue that seizure rates -- particularly as they continue to focus on the "small fish" -- may have increased not as a result of more effective law enforcement, but as a byproduct of higher trafficking rates.
And likewise with other programs. While some praise the establishment of new drug commissions and other anti-narcotics agencies, others criticize them as exacerbating the widespread corruption inherent in these countries, particularly in governments and law enforcement. While some endorse the ODCCP-supported bio-chemical research program in Uzbekistan, others are concerned about the long-term effects on plant and animal life and potential links to biological terrorism. And still others have questioned whether the training and equipment provided by the U.S. and others to Central Asia has actually been used to fight drug trafficking, or to crack down on domestic political opposition. One U.S. State Department official called the transfer of night vision goggles to Central Asia "abhorrent."
Complicating the controversies has been a number of factors inherent in the Central Asian drug trade. One is the contradictory and inconsistent baseline data, leading, for example, to a divergence in U.S. and UN estimates of opium cultivation. In 1999, for example, U.S. government estimates of 2700 metric tons of opium produced in Afghanistan contrasted markedly with the 4600 metric tons estimated by the UN. The ODCCP estimates suggest a further 28 percent decline of opium production in 2000 versus the roughly 30 percent increase in production reported in U.S. estimates.
Another is the widespread, and deep-seated corruption characteristic of these countries, and particularly in their law enforcement agencies, that allows narcotics trafficking to flourish. All of the Central Asian leaders have criticized their own law enforcement officials for being deeply involved in the drug trade in one way or another. Some western specialists involved in programs have expressed concern that they do not always know whether they are transferring expertise to create more highly professional law enforcement -- or more sophisticated traffickers. Limited resources and regional expertise often limits the ability of programs to assess who wins, and who loses from the rampant trafficking in Central Asia -- and from western programs introduced to combat it.
This is further compounded by limited resources and demand for follow up, evaluation and monitoring. Funding for programs overall is limited and fickle, with the UN in particular dependent on voluntary contributions that can change dramatically from one day to the next. Standard mechanisms for reporting and evaluation, as well as formal evaluations of western counter- narcotics programs in Central Asia, are generally cursory, if conducted at all, and often not available for outside consumption.
In addition, programs are handicapped by limited regional expertise, and by limited transparency or accessibility that hampers input from local communities themselves. Many counter-narcotics training programs are designed and implemented by law enforcement specialists with little, if any, prior experience in this part of the world. Training programs are often designed and organized, and trainees often selected, by local foreign service nationals with little independent vetting, while instructors are provided little support to ensure that their training fits the Central Asian context.
It is difficult to for independent observers to assess the controversies and the extent of these challenges because little information is publicly available. But some observers suggest that if these issues are not addressed openly, western programs could well have serious unintended societal impacts that go well beyond questions of interdiction alone.
Editor’s Note: Nancy Lubin is President of JNA Associates, Inc. -- a research and consulting firm that works on assessments and projects concerning the NIS, especially Central Asia. She has lived, worked and traveled throughout Central Asia and the Caucasus for well over twenty five years -- as a Congressional staffer, University Professor, and now for JNA -- and consults for international donors, the media, major corporations and smaller, start up companies.
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