Uzbekistan population said to be indifferent to war in Afghanistan


Russian newspaper 'Nezavisimaya Gazeta'
December 15

Even Uzbekistan's Fergana Valley, which is believed to determine stability throughout all of Central Asia and whose population is noted for its religious fervour, seems to be indifferent to the antiterrorist operation in Afghanistan, a newspaper article has said. According to the article, Uzbekistan President Islam Karimov managed to suppress the activity of Islamic radicals in the region and made the official Muslim clergy do his bidding and launch powerful campaign in support of US action in Afghanistan. There is a view, however, that the low living standards in the republic could still provoke spontaneous uprisings and create instability.

The following is an excerpt from report by Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta on 15 December

Most of the republic's inhabitants take an indifferent attitude towards the war in Afghanistan.

"We carefully studied the situation in Uzbekistan's Fergana Valley and came to the conclusion that despite the predictions of many political scientists, most of the population remains indifferent to the antiterrorist operation in Afghanistan. People are above all worried about how to feed their families," Azizulla Gaziyev, an analyst for the International Group for Preventing Crises, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

The Fergana Valley is a special region of Uzbekistan. The population density here is among the highest in the world. The population is much more religious than in other regions of Uzbekistan. Even in Soviet times, an entire network of semi-underground madrasahs and mosques that were not under the control of the Communist leadership operated here. Born specifically in this region was the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, whose fighters are now fighting on the Taleban side in Afghanistan. Energetically operating in the Fergana Valley until recently was also the international radical Islamic party Hezb-e Tahrir, which set its goal to unify Muslims of the entire world into a single caliphate. In the opinion of many analysts, it is the situation in the Fergana Valley that determines stability throughout all of Central Asia.

It appears that Islam Karimov has managed to suppress Islamic radicals' activity in this region. While leaflets from Hezb-e Tahrir which summon Muslims to come to the aid of the Taleban appeared on the streets of cities in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan after the counterterrorist operation started in Afghanistan, the Uzbek law-enforcement organs managed to stop these actions. "One must admit that our people are sleeping. Even Islam Karimov's cooperation with the United States, which is exterminating the Afghan Muslims, did not wake the Uzbeks up. Most of the true Muslims have been behind bars for a long time now. And the rest who are free have forgotten about God and think only of a piece of bread," people from the Uzbek branch of Hezb-e Tahrir told the Nezavisimaya Gazeta correspondent. Their accusations against the authorities, who are following a "systematic anti-Islam policy," are not without grounds. Today, at least, Tashkent is trying to have complete control over the activities of religious organizations.

Article 10 of the law "On Freedom of Conscience and Religious Organizations" says that "religious organizations acquire the status of a legal person and may carry on their activity after they are registered with the Ministry of Justice of the Republic of Uzbekistan or its local organs in the manner prescribed by legislation." That is, if believers gather in unregistered prayer houses, the authorities consider it a violation of the law and apply punitive measures, even to the point of starting a criminal case. In practically every city in the Fergana Valley, the Nezavisimaya Gazeta journalist was shown unregistered mosques closed by the authorities. Indirectly even the authorities themselves admit that they are the ones who determine the number of active religious establishments.

Total control of the official Muslim clergy by the secular authorities permitted Tashkent to launch a powerful propaganda campaign after the antiterrorist operation in Afghanistan began. In all the mosques, the imams gave sermons condemning terrorism. The chief imam of Tashkent Anwar-hajj Tursunov, in welcoming the start of Washington's antiterrorist campaign in Afghanistan, said that this action promotes stability in Uzbekistan. But it is still too early to discount the possibility of destabilization of the situation in the republic. "The danger of spontaneous uprisings is still real. The extremely low standard of living of most of the republic's population is the chief catalyst for potential instability in Uzbekistan," Azizulla Gaziyev believes.

Shoazim Minovarov, the first deputy chairman of the Committee on Religious Matters of the Republic of Uzbekistan, also admits the fact that the increased influence of Islamic fundamentalists is explained by social problems: "In my view, the West must understand that the main social base of Islamic fundamentalists is the most destitute strata of the population. Accordingly, if developed countries want stability in the world, they must provide economic aid to the poor Muslim countries. In our country Islamic fundamentalists appeared in the early 1990s, in other words, at the time when we were experiencing temporary economic difficulties."

To be fair, I should mention that unlike other Central Asian republics where the standard of living is roughly the same as in Uzbekistan, Tashkent is trying to revive the country's economy. But so far these positive changes have not resulted in a higher standard of living. It is difficult to predict how the events will develop from now on. One thing is obvious: even if Karimov does manage to stay in power, it is foolish to hope that Uzbekistan will become a democratic state.